PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT

STUDENT’S NAME_______________________________________

**NOTE: YOU MUST SHOW ALL FORMULAS AND CALCULATIONS.**

Activity | Predecessors | Expected Duration (in minutes) | Variance of Duration (in minutes) |

A | —- | 10 | 1.2 |

B | A | 5 | 1.00 |

C | A | 15 | 2.4 |

D | B, C | 11 | 1.5 |

E | D | 10 | 1.8 |

a). From the above project, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 50 minutes?

b. How many minutes will it take for the project be completed if the company projects 90% upper bound on the completion time of the project.

2. (a) University project that is analyzed by PERT has 42 activities, 13 of which are on the critical path. If the estimated time along the critical path is 105 days with a project variance of 25, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 95 days or more?

2. (b) If the University project still on a PERT network has these time estimates: optimistic = 2, most likely = 3, and pessimistic = 10. Calculate both the *expected activity time* and *variance*?

3. Kenny’s activity that is on a PERT network has the following time estimates: optimistic = 3, most likely = 5, and pessimistic = 10. Also, the activity has a normal duration of 13 days but can be shortened to 11 days for an added cost of $1,500.

Given the analysis above:

a). What is its expected activity time?

b). What is the variance?

b). What is the crash cost per period?

4) AWOSCB’S project has an estimated time of 120 days on a critical path has a variance of 100 with a 20% chance of completion. How many days would you estimate this project to be completed. Note: round your estimation to the nearest day).

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